Does NU fit the profile of elite-win teams?

Ask any true Nebraska fan and he or she should be able to tell you, almost reflexively, how many win Tom Osborn always had.  “9” is a magical number to Cornhusker fans, and has become the de facto minimum standard of what Husker Nation will tolerate.

Tom Osborne, however, played more than 12 games per season only 6 times, and those were 13 game seasons.  He averaged 12.24 games per season over his career.  Bo Pelini has played 3 14-game seasons and 2 13-game seasons for an average of 13.6 games per season.  

Should that extra game and ½ mean that the minimum standard should be raised?  Is a 9-win season no longer the impressive feat that it was under Tom Osborne?  Both are subjective questions outside the scope of analysis based on statistics.  What is within that scope, however, is a look at where Nebraska is in relation to other 9, 10, 11, and 12 win teams.  With that in mind it might help frame the issue of whether Nebraskans want to hold Coach Pelini to a 10- or 11-win standard.

To do this I took all teams with 9 or greater wins from 2002-2012 and calculated the average PF and average PA for 9-, 10-, 11-, and 12- win teams.  There weren’t enough 13- and 14-win teams to draw statistical inferences from.  Using that info, I broke the teams into conference averages as well.  

I’ll skip the rest of the nerdy stuff and get right to the point.  

Finding 1:  Offensively, (particularly as a member of the B1G) Nebraska is well positioned to move into the realms of  10-11 win teams.  The 2012 Huskers performed at an offensive level that is well above the average for 9 and 10 win teams, slightly above average for 11-win teams, and right at average for 12-win B1G teams.  Despite NU’s turnover problems they scored a lot of points.

Finding 2:  Nebraska’s defensive performance this year is well-below average for even 9-win teams over the last decade.  For B1G teams, it is even worse.  Nebraska’s PA this year would be in the bottom 10% of 10 win teams, the bottom 5% of 9 and 12-win teams, and dead last for 11-win B1G teams.

The conclusion is clear:  Offensively, Nebraska matches the profile of elite win teams.  Defensively, Nebraska's performance does not merit consideration as an elite win team and will almost certainly preclude it from becoming one if it does not improve.  Bo Pelini’s emphasis needs to be on the defense next year.

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Pre-season Margarine of Victory Big 10 Season Predictor

I'm working on the 2011 Margarine of Victory model based on Sagarin's ratings. I'm trying to fine tune inputs into the model based on statistical category ratings, but it isn't complete yet.

So, based on shaky pre-season data, here's my first prediction of regular season finishes.

		W	L
Nebraska		11	1
Iowa		11	1
Michigan		7	5
Michigan State		7	5
Minnesota		3	9
Northwestern		6	6
Illinois		8	4
Indiana		4	9
Ohio State		12	0
Penn State		8	4
Purdue		5	7
Wisconsin		11	1

3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	NU Score	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Nebraska	83.59
Chattanooga	53.98			32.69	1.00	5.16	1.000	0.000	-32.69
Fresno State	69.74			16.93	1.00	3.75	2.000	0.000	-16.93
Washington	74.19			12.48	1.00	3.35	3.000	0.000
Wyoming	62.85			20.74	1.00	4.09	3.999	0.000
Wisconsin	84.61			-1.02	0.98	2.13	4.983	0.000
Ohio State	85.55			1.12	0.99	2.33	5.973	0.000
Minnesota	67.84			15.75	1.00	3.64	6.973	0.000
Michigan State	77.38			9.29	1.00	3.06	7.972	0.000
Northwestern	70.32			16.35	1.00	3.69	8.972	0.000
Penn State	81.06			2.53	0.99	2.45	9.965	0.000
Michigan	73.19			10.4	1.00	3.16	10.964	0.000
Iowa	82.48			4.19	1.00	2.60	11.959	0.000
Bowl Game	#N/A			#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UI Score	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Iowa	82.48
Tennessee Tech	43.63			41.93	1.00	3.55	1.000	0.000	-41.93
Iowa State	68.4			14.08	0.98	2.14	1.984	0.000	-14.08
Pittsburgh	79.95			5.61	0.96	1.71	2.940	0.000	-5.61
Louisiana-Monroe	57.67			27.89	1.00	2.84	3.937	0.000	-27.89
Penn State	81.06			1.42	0.93	1.49	4.870	0.000	-1.42
Northwestern	70.32			15.24	0.99	2.20	5.856	0.000	-15.24
Indiana	63.77			21.79	0.99	2.53	6.850	0.000	-21.79
Minnesota	67.84			14.64	0.98	2.17	7.835	0.000	-14.64
Michigan	73.19			12.37	0.98	2.05	8.815	0.000	-12.37
Michigan State	77.38			8.18	0.97	1.84	9.782	0.000	-8.18
Purdue	68.26			14.22	0.98	2.14	10.766	0.000	-14.22
Nebraska	83.59			-1.11	0.98	2.13	11.749	0.000	1.11
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UM	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Michigan	73.19
Western Michigan	63.41			12.86	0.95	1.65	0.951	0.000	-12.86
Notre Dame	78.82			-2.55	0.59	0.24	1.545	0.000	2.55
Eastern Michigan	49.55			26.72	1.00	2.93	2.544	0.000	-26.72
San Diego State	68.69			7.58	0.88	1.17	3.422	0.000	-7.58
Minnesota	67.84			8.43	0.89	1.25	4.316	0.000	-8.43
Northwestern	70.32			2.87	0.77	0.74	5.085	0.000	-2.87
Michigan State	77.38			-4.19	0.54	0.09	5.621	0.000	4.19
Purdue	68.26			8.01	0.89	1.21	6.507	0.000	-8.01
Iowa	82.48			-9.29	0.35	-0.38	6.859	0.000	9.29
Illinois	73.09			0.1	0.69	0.48	7.545	0.000	-0.1
Nebraska	83.59			-7.32	0.42	-0.20	7.966	0.000	7.32
Ohio State	85.55			-9.28
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	MSU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Michigan State	77.38
Youngstown State	53.52			26.94	1.00	20.46	1.000	0.000	-26.94
Florida Atlantic	57.12			23.34	1.00	19.04	2.000	0.000	-23.34
Notre Dame	78.82			-1.44	1.00	9.31	3.000	0.000	1.44
Central Michigan	65.48			14.98	1.00	15.76	4.000	0.000	-14.98
Ohio State	85.55			-8.17	1.00	6.67	5.000	0.000	8.17
Michigan	73.19			7.27	1.00	12.73	6.000	0.000	-7.27
Wisconsin	84.61			-4.15	1.00	8.25	7.000	0.000	4.15
Nebraska	83.59			-6.21	1.00	7.44	8.000	0.000	6.21
Minnesota	67.84			12.62	1.00	14.83	9.000	0.000	-12.62
Iowa	82.48			-5.1	1.00	7.87	10.000	0.000	5.1
Indiana	63.77			16.69	1.00	16.43	11.000	0.000	-16.69
Northwestern	70.32			7.06	1.00	12.65	12.000	0.000	-7.06
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UM	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Minnesota	67.84
Southern California	87.15			-19.31	0.24	-0.70	0.241	0.000	19.31
New Mexico State	51.46			19.46	0.76	0.71	1.003	0.000	-19.46
Miami-Ohio	59.88			11.04	0.66	0.41	1.661	0.000	-11.04
North Dakota State	59.59			11.33	0.66	0.42	2.322	0.000	-11.33
Michigan	73.19			-5.35	0.42	-0.19	2.746	0.000	5.35
Purdue	68.26			-0.42	0.49	-0.01	3.241	0.000	0.42
Nebraska	83.59			-12.67	0.32	-0.46	3.564	0.000	12.67
Iowa	82.48			-11.56	0.34	-0.42	3.901	0.000	11.56
Michigan State	77.38			-9.54	0.36	-0.35	4.266	0.000	9.54
Wisconsin	84.61			-13.69	0.31	-0.50	4.576	0.000	13.69
Northwestern	70.32			-2.48	0.47	-0.09	5.041	0.000	2.48
Illinois	73.09			-2.17	0.47	-0.08	5.511	0.000	2.17
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	NU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Northwestern	70.32
Boston College	76.89			-6.57	0.56	0.16	0.565	0.000	6.57
Eastern Illinois	45.82			27.58	0.94	1.58	1.507	0.000	-27.58
Army	61.22			9.1	0.79	0.81	2.299	0.000	-9.1
Illinois	73.09			-2.77	0.63	0.32	2.925	0.000	2.77
Michigan	73.19			0.21	0.67	0.44	3.596	0.000	-0.21
Iowa	82.48			-12.16	0.47	-0.07	4.069	0.000	12.16
Penn State	81.06			-7.66	0.55	0.12	4.616	0.000	7.66
Indiana	63.77			6.55	0.76	0.71	5.375	0.000	-6.55
Nebraska	83.59			-13.27	0.45	-0.11	5.830	0.000	13.27
Rice	59.08			14.32	0.85	1.03	6.678	0.000	-14.32
Minnesota	67.84			5.56	0.75	0.67	7.425	0.000	-5.56
Michigan State	77.38
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UI	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Illinois	73.09
Arkansas State	59.61			16.56	1.00	65.26	1.000	0.000	-16.56
South Dakota State	60.32			15.85	1.00	63.85	2.000	0.000	-15.85
Arizona State	78.79			-2.62	1.00	27.06	3.000	0.000	2.62
Western Michigan	63.41			12.76	1.00	57.69	4.000	0.000	-12.76
Northwestern	70.32			5.85	1.00	43.93	5.000	0.000	-5.85
Indiana	63.77			9.32	1.00	50.84	6.000	0.000	-9.32
Ohio State	85.55			-9.38	1.00	13.59	7.000	0.000	9.38
Purdue	68.26			4.83	1.00	41.90	8.000	0.000	-4.83
Penn State	81.06			-7.97	1.00	16.40	9.000	0.000	7.97
Michigan	73.19			2.98	1.00	38.21	10.000	0.000	-2.98
Wisconsin	84.61			-8.44	1.00	15.47	11.000	0.000	8.44
Minnesota	67.84			5.25	0.58	0.19	11.577	0.000	-5.25
Bowl Game	#N/A			#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.000	#N/A
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	IN	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Indiana	63.77
Ball State	57.87			5.9	0.86	1.06	0.855	0.000	-5.9
Virginia	70.4			-3.55	0.36	-0.36	1.216	0.000	3.55
South Carolina State	13.67			53.18	1.00	8.13	2.216	0.000	-53.18
North Texas	52.77			11	0.97	1.82	3.182	0.000	-11
Penn State	81.06			-14.21	0.03	-1.95	3.208	0.000	14.21
Illinois	73.09			-6.24	0.22	-0.76	3.432	0.000	6.24
Wisconsin	84.61			-20.84	0.00	-2.94	3.433	0.000	20.84
Iowa	82.48			-18.71	0.00	-2.62	3.438	0.000	18.71
Northwestern	70.32			-3.47	0.37	-0.34	3.803	0.000	3.47
Ohio State	85.55			-21.78	0.00	-3.08	3.804	0.000	21.78
Michigan State	77.38			-13.61	0.03	-1.86	3.836	0.000	13.61
Purdue	68.26
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	OSU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Ohio State	85.55
Akron	52.06			36.57	1.00	9.82	1.000	0.000	-36.57
Toledo	61.89			26.74	1.00	8.40	2.000	0.000	-26.74
Miami-Florida	79.53			6.02	1.00	5.42	3.000	0.000	-6.02
Colorado	69.54			19.09	1.00	7.30	4.000	0.000	-19.09
Michigan State	77.38			8.17	1.00	5.73	5.000	0.000	-8.17
Nebraska	83.59			1.96	1.00	4.84	6.000	0.000	-1.96
Illinois	73.09			12.46	1.00	6.35	7.000	0.000	-12.46
Wisconsin	84.61			4.02	1.00	5.13	8.000	0.000	-4.02
Indiana	63.77			24.86	1.00	8.13	9.000	0.000	-24.86
Purdue	68.26			17.29	1.00	7.04	10.000	0.000	-17.29
Penn State	81.06			7.57	1.00	5.64	11.000	0.000	-7.57
Michigan	73.19			12.36	0.67	0.45	11.675	0.000	-12.36
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	PSU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Penn State	81.06
Indiana State	41.73			42.41	0.95	1.65	0.951	0.000	-42.41
Alabama	92.53			-8.39	0.59	0.24	1.546	0.000	8.39
Temple	65.97			15.09	0.81	0.89	2.360	0.000	-15.09
Eastern Michigan	49.55			34.59	0.92	1.44	3.285	0.000	-34.59
Indiana	63.77			17.29	0.83	0.95	4.115	0.000	-17.29
Iowa	82.48			1.66	0.70	0.52	4.813	0.000	-1.66
Purdue	68.26			15.88	0.82	0.92	5.633	0.000	-15.88
Northwestern	70.32			10.74	0.78	0.77	6.413	0.000	-10.74
Illinois	73.09			7.97	0.76	0.70	7.170	0.000	-7.97
Nebraska	83.59			-2.53	0.66	0.40	7.826	0.000	2.53
Ohio State	85.55			-4.49	0.64	0.35	8.463	0.000	4.49
Wisconsin	84.61			-3.55	0.45	-0.13	8.912	0.000	3.55
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	PU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Purdue	68.26
Middle Tennessee	61.48			9.86	1.00	40.31	1.000	0.000	-9.86
Rice	59.08			9.18	0.70	0.52	1.699	0.000	-9.18
SE Missouri State	44.62			26.72	0.84	1.01	2.542	0.000	-26.72
Notre Dame	78.82			-7.48	0.52	0.06	3.065	0.000	7.48
Minnesota	67.84			3.5	0.64	0.36	3.706	0.000	-3.5
Penn State	81.06			-12.8	0.46	-0.09	4.170	0.000	12.8
Illinois	73.09			-1.75	0.59	0.22	4.756	0.000	1.75
Michigan	73.19			-4.93	0.55	0.13	5.306	0.000	4.93
Wisconsin	84.61			-16.35	0.42	-0.19	5.731	0.000	16.35
Ohio State	85.55			-14.21	0.45	-0.13	6.179	0.000	14.21
Iowa	82.48			-11.14	0.48	-0.05	6.661	0.000	11.14
Indiana	63.77			4.49	0.57	0.17	7.227	0.000	-4.49
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UW	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Wisconsin	84.61
UNLV	60.76			26.93	1.00	3.01	0.999	0.000	-26.93
Oregon State	81.23			6.46	0.95	1.60	1.944	0.000	-6.46
Northern Illinois	68.9			15.71	0.99	2.24	2.931	0.000	-15.71
South Dakota	48.79			38.9	1.00	3.84	3.931	0.000	-38.9
Nebraska	83.59			4.1	0.92	1.44	4.856	0.000	-4.1
Indiana	63.77			23.92	1.00	2.81	5.853	0.000	-23.92
Michigan State	77.38			7.23	0.95	1.65	6.804	0.000	-7.23
Ohio State	85.55			-0.94	0.86	1.09	7.666	0.000	0.94
Purdue	68.26			19.43	0.99	2.50	8.660	0.000	-19.43
Minnesota	67.84			16.77	0.99	2.31	9.649	0.000	-16.77
Illinois	73.09			11.52	0.97	1.95	10.624	0.000	-11.52
Penn State	81.06			6.63	0.60	0.24	11.220	0.000	-6.63