I calculate each team's performance in a given stat category on a scale from
0 to 1. The best team in the nation is rated 1.0 and the worst team is rated
0.0. Everyone else fits in somewhere in between. My method allows a team
that is exceptionally good or exceptional awful performances to be reflected
in the scores and, IMO, is more accurate than simply rating a team 1 to 120.
A score of .50 means that the team produced exactly half of what the best
team in the NCAA does.

When I compare PSU's scores to the match up average of its opponents (PSU
Scoring offense to Opp's Average Scoring Defense), I get a good picture of
the relative quality of PSU and its opponents in the contenxt of the entire
NCAA.

PSU Scoring Defense vs Opp Scoring Offense

PSU - .870
Opps - .417
- PSU's scoring defense is very good, but the average performance of its
opponents scoring offense highlights that they have played, over the course
of the season, a group of teams that are really bad at scoring points. If we
take away Alabama from this, PSU's opponents average is .379.

PSU Rush Defense vs Opp Rush Offense

PSU - .689
Opps - .439
- PSU is good at rush defense, but far from great. They are barely in the
top 1/3 of the country. Their opponents are lousy at running the ball. Bama
and Eastern Mich score .536 and .526 and Temple is .612, but four of the
other five opponents score less than .400.

PSU Pass Defense vs Opp Pass Offense

PSU - .774
Opps - .364

-I'm going to come out and say it. PSU's pass offense score is meaningless
when you consider that its opponents are statistically some of the worst in
the nation. Bama was the best passing team they faced with a score of .443.
They haven't faced a single team that is even average at passing the ball.

PSU Turnover Margin vs Opp Turnover Margin

PSU - .540
Opps - .442

Finally, a statistic where PSU's rank isn't skewed by the overall lousy
performance of its opponents. PSU is average, none of its opponents are much
better than average though.

PSU Scoring Offense vs Opp Scoring Defense

PSU - .248
Opps - .659

I don't think it's a big coincidence that Bama and Temple are #1 and #2 in
Scoring Defense in the country and both have PSU on their schedule. Still,
when you take them off the board, PSU's opps average a very mortal
.557...better than average but far from the best group in the country.
Anyway you slice it, PSU is lousy at scoring points.

PSU Rush Offense vs Opp Rush Defense

PSU - .315
Opps - .543

PSU faced the best rush defense in the country (Bama) and one of the worst
(Indiana). Take Bama away, and the remaining teams average .478...note even
average. And they have still managed to field and anemic rush offense.

PSU Pass Offense vs Opps Pass Defense

PSU - .358
Opps - .607

Same song, different stat. Take Bama away, and PSU's opps average a
pedestrian .558 and PSU couldn't pass on them.

What's it all mean? PSU's defense has been over-inflated by teams that are
awful on offense and their offense is arguably worse than their opponents.
PSU is ripe for three consecutive blowout losses.

HuskerMath's Statistical Category Power Rankings

I've been working on this for some time, and it looks like I got it done just in time for the season.

This is an attempt to rank the 120 D1 teams based on their performance in different statistical categories.

The method I used was fairly straight-forward. Each team receives a score from 0-1 in each stat category. The score is calculated by (Value - Min / Max). Okay, maybe that's not particular straight forward, but here's an example:

In the category TD/game, the best team (Oregon) averaged 6.23 TD/game. In this category, Max=6.23. The worst was Memphis at 1.58 TD/game. In this category, Min=1.58. That means the span of values is 6.23-1.58, or 4.65. I subtract the category Min from each team's score to move the span to a start point of zero. This becomes each team's adjusted category value.

Then, to compute each team's points for that category I take the adjusted team value and divide it by the total span of that category. So, the computation for Oregon is (6.23-1.58)/4.65, or 4.65/4.65. This ensures that the #1 team in each category receives exactly 1 point. Memphis' computation is (1.58-1.58)/4.65, or 0/4.65. This sets the last place team in each category to 0 points. Each of the 118 other team's scores is calculated as a proportion of their values compared to the best in the category. While this looks much like a simple 1-120 ranking, it is slightly different, and allows for one team with an unusually high or low score to be rewarded or punished accordingly in a way that a simple 1-n ranking does not allow.

I perform those calculation on 73 categories and then sum the scores. The team with the highest total score is ranked #1 in my system.

Pros:
Completely objective - it is based solely on the team's performance with no consideration given to strength of schedule

Cons:
Does not consider W/L Record
Weights all statistical categories equally - scoring defense is the same weight as 3rd down conversions / game

Looking back at 2010, my top 25 is:

0	Team	Conference	Adjusted Total Score
1	TCU	Mountain West	50.79
2	Wisconsin	Big Ten	50.33
3	Boise State	WAC	49.37
4	Ohio State	Big Ten	49.04
5	Stanford	Pac 10	46.99
6	Alabama	SEC	46.39
7	Northern Illinois	MAC	44.31
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	43.67
9	Virginia Tech	ACC	43.57
10	Iowa	Big Ten	43.21
11	Nevada	WAC	42.95
12	Hawai'i	WAC	42.90
13	UCF	USA	42.69
14	Georgia	SEC	42.38
15	Auburn	SEC	42.27
16	Oklahoma State	Big 12	42.22
17	Oregon	Pac 10	41.77
18	Air Force	Mountain West	41.65
19	San Diego State	Mountain West	41.57
20	North Carolina State	ACC	41.56
21	Navy	Independent	41.55
22	Arkansas	SEC	41.00
23	Illinois	Big Ten	40.74
24	West Virginia	Big East	40.69
25	Missouri	Big 12	40.55

In care you're wondering, Nebraska ranked #47, with 38.26 points.

We were decidedly ordinary last year.

The following charts show the change from one year to the next in the final Sagarin rankings. Each data point represents the final score (not ordinal rank) according to Jeff Sagarin and posted at [url]http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm[/url].

Ohio State Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

The final data point is the initial Sagarin score of 2011. After some pretty large changes in the early 2000s, OSU has been a model of consistency, with its Sagarin score varying less than five points from one year to the next. The initial 2011 Sagarin poll of 2011 has OSU #3 in the country with a score of 90.55, a decrease of 2.2 points from its score in the final 2010 poll. I think that, given the turmoil at OSU this season, that ranking may be a bit high, but OSU has, again, been consistent in its Sagarin score and rankings. I believe there is a high degree of probability that OSU’s initial Sagarin Score will be within 3 points of its initial score.




Wisconsin Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Wisconsin has exhibited a history of volatility in its rankings, with an apparent pattern of big drops followed by successive years of increases. The drops in ’99, ’00, and ’01 were followed by gains from ’02 to ’06. Two more years of drops were followed by gains in ’09 and ’10. Wisconsin’s initial ranking in 2011 of 82.76, #16 in the country, is probably about right, given the past trends. Wisconsin peaked in rankings in the late ‘90s, and has been unable to climb back above 90 points since then. I believe that there is a high probability that Wisconsin will finish within 5 points of its initial Sagarin Score of 82.76 and that its final Sagarin score of 2011 will not be above 90.


Nebraska Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Since posting National Championship level Sagarin Scores in the late ‘90s, Nebraska has been remarkably consistent in the final rankings, with dips only in the notably bad years of ’04 and ’07. Overall the trend has been level to upward since 2005. I believe there is a moderate probability that Nebraska will finish the 2011 season with a final Sagarin Score more than 3 points greater than its initial 2011 score of 82.61 (#17 nationally) I believe there is a very low probability that Nebraska will finish the 2011 season with a Sagarin score less than its initial score.


Iowa Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

The trend that Iowa has shown is long periods of improvement, followed by long periods of decline. I believe there is a low probability that Iowa’s final 2011Sagarin score will be within 3 points of its initial score of 84.48 (#18 nationally). Iowa will either improve or decline, but it doesn’t remain unchanged. I believe that Iowa will decline this year.




Penn State Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Penn State is the box of chocolates in the Big 10 – you never know what you’re going to get. The made significant gains in 2010 from 2009, though that only brought them back to 80 points, a number they had remained above since 2004. I believe there’s a high probability that Penn State will finish 2011 within 3 points of their initial score of 81.06 (#23 nationally). I believe that Penn State will gain slightly by the end of the year and finish above 80 points.



Michigan State Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

After one terrific year (1999), Michigan State has been up and down but almost always remaining the 70s. The initial 2011 ranking of 77.38 (#25 nationally) is only 1.9 points less than their 2010 final score, a year that they went 12-2 with a share of the Big 10 title. I believe there is a high degree of probability that Michigan State’s final 2011 Sagarin score will be at least 3 points less than their initial 2011 score.

Michigan Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.  Michigan’s rise from its nadir has been slow, but steady of the last two years.  The decline that Michigan experienced in 2008 and the slow return to relevancy in 2009 and 2010 is analogous to what happened with Nebraska in 2007 to 2010.  I believe that there is a high probability that Michigan’s final Sagarin score will be within 3 points of its initial 2011 score of 73.19 (#50 nationally).  And in much the same way that I am predicting that Nebraska’s final score will be higher than its initial score this year, I believe that Michigan’s 2012 Sagarin score will be much more congruous with its traditional scores.

Illinois Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

About the only thing you can say about Illinois that is that they are consistently inconsistent.  The only period of relative stability was when Illinois was consistently awful, from 2003-2006.  I believe there is a high probability that Illinois’ initital score of 73.09 (#52 nationally) will be withing 3 points of its initial score and that 2012 will mark another year of decline.

Northwestern Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

It’s impossible to tell from this graph what to expect from Northwestern in 2011.  Northwestern has a pattern of multi-year gains followed by a steep decline, so I believe that there a moderate probability that Northwestern’s final Sagarin score will be more than 3 points higher than its initial score of 70.32 (#60 nationally).

 

Purdue Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

The trend here is undeniable.  Purdue’s football program has been going the wrong direction for years.  They have a micro trend, though, of gaining slightly every other year, so their initial score of 68.26 (#71 nationally) is reasonable.  I believe it’s probable that Purdues final Sagarin score will be withing 3 points of its initial 2011 score.

 Minnesota Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Much like Purdue, Minnesota’s overall trend has been downward, though the last few years have been marked by a period of relative stability, if not quality.  Minnesota’s trend is a few years of little variance followed by a marked decline.  I believe that Minnesota is due for another decline, and for that reason I believe there is a high probability that Minnesota’s final Sagarin score will be more than 3 points less than its initial score of 67.84 (#72 nationally).

Indiana Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

In the same way that Minnesota seems due for a decline, Indiana seems prepped for one as well.  I believe that there’s a high probability that Indiana’s final Sagarin score will be more than 3 points less than its initial score of 63.77 (#80 nationally).

Pre-season Margarine of Victory Big 10 Season Predictor

I'm working on the 2011 Margarine of Victory model based on Sagarin's ratings. I'm trying to fine tune inputs into the model based on statistical category ratings, but it isn't complete yet.

So, based on shaky pre-season data, here's my first prediction of regular season finishes.

		W	L
Nebraska		11	1
Iowa		11	1
Michigan		7	5
Michigan State		7	5
Minnesota		3	9
Northwestern		6	6
Illinois		8	4
Indiana		4	9
Ohio State		12	0
Penn State		8	4
Purdue		5	7
Wisconsin		11	1

3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	NU Score	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Nebraska	83.59
Chattanooga	53.98			32.69	1.00	5.16	1.000	0.000	-32.69
Fresno State	69.74			16.93	1.00	3.75	2.000	0.000	-16.93
Washington	74.19			12.48	1.00	3.35	3.000	0.000
Wyoming	62.85			20.74	1.00	4.09	3.999	0.000
Wisconsin	84.61			-1.02	0.98	2.13	4.983	0.000
Ohio State	85.55			1.12	0.99	2.33	5.973	0.000
Minnesota	67.84			15.75	1.00	3.64	6.973	0.000
Michigan State	77.38			9.29	1.00	3.06	7.972	0.000
Northwestern	70.32			16.35	1.00	3.69	8.972	0.000
Penn State	81.06			2.53	0.99	2.45	9.965	0.000
Michigan	73.19			10.4	1.00	3.16	10.964	0.000
Iowa	82.48			4.19	1.00	2.60	11.959	0.000
Bowl Game	#N/A			#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UI Score	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Iowa	82.48
Tennessee Tech	43.63			41.93	1.00	3.55	1.000	0.000	-41.93
Iowa State	68.4			14.08	0.98	2.14	1.984	0.000	-14.08
Pittsburgh	79.95			5.61	0.96	1.71	2.940	0.000	-5.61
Louisiana-Monroe	57.67			27.89	1.00	2.84	3.937	0.000	-27.89
Penn State	81.06			1.42	0.93	1.49	4.870	0.000	-1.42
Northwestern	70.32			15.24	0.99	2.20	5.856	0.000	-15.24
Indiana	63.77			21.79	0.99	2.53	6.850	0.000	-21.79
Minnesota	67.84			14.64	0.98	2.17	7.835	0.000	-14.64
Michigan	73.19			12.37	0.98	2.05	8.815	0.000	-12.37
Michigan State	77.38			8.18	0.97	1.84	9.782	0.000	-8.18
Purdue	68.26			14.22	0.98	2.14	10.766	0.000	-14.22
Nebraska	83.59			-1.11	0.98	2.13	11.749	0.000	1.11
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UM	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Michigan	73.19
Western Michigan	63.41			12.86	0.95	1.65	0.951	0.000	-12.86
Notre Dame	78.82			-2.55	0.59	0.24	1.545	0.000	2.55
Eastern Michigan	49.55			26.72	1.00	2.93	2.544	0.000	-26.72
San Diego State	68.69			7.58	0.88	1.17	3.422	0.000	-7.58
Minnesota	67.84			8.43	0.89	1.25	4.316	0.000	-8.43
Northwestern	70.32			2.87	0.77	0.74	5.085	0.000	-2.87
Michigan State	77.38			-4.19	0.54	0.09	5.621	0.000	4.19
Purdue	68.26			8.01	0.89	1.21	6.507	0.000	-8.01
Iowa	82.48			-9.29	0.35	-0.38	6.859	0.000	9.29
Illinois	73.09			0.1	0.69	0.48	7.545	0.000	-0.1
Nebraska	83.59			-7.32	0.42	-0.20	7.966	0.000	7.32
Ohio State	85.55			-9.28
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	MSU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Michigan State	77.38
Youngstown State	53.52			26.94	1.00	20.46	1.000	0.000	-26.94
Florida Atlantic	57.12			23.34	1.00	19.04	2.000	0.000	-23.34
Notre Dame	78.82			-1.44	1.00	9.31	3.000	0.000	1.44
Central Michigan	65.48			14.98	1.00	15.76	4.000	0.000	-14.98
Ohio State	85.55			-8.17	1.00	6.67	5.000	0.000	8.17
Michigan	73.19			7.27	1.00	12.73	6.000	0.000	-7.27
Wisconsin	84.61			-4.15	1.00	8.25	7.000	0.000	4.15
Nebraska	83.59			-6.21	1.00	7.44	8.000	0.000	6.21
Minnesota	67.84			12.62	1.00	14.83	9.000	0.000	-12.62
Iowa	82.48			-5.1	1.00	7.87	10.000	0.000	5.1
Indiana	63.77			16.69	1.00	16.43	11.000	0.000	-16.69
Northwestern	70.32			7.06	1.00	12.65	12.000	0.000	-7.06
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UM	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Minnesota	67.84
Southern California	87.15			-19.31	0.24	-0.70	0.241	0.000	19.31
New Mexico State	51.46			19.46	0.76	0.71	1.003	0.000	-19.46
Miami-Ohio	59.88			11.04	0.66	0.41	1.661	0.000	-11.04
North Dakota State	59.59			11.33	0.66	0.42	2.322	0.000	-11.33
Michigan	73.19			-5.35	0.42	-0.19	2.746	0.000	5.35
Purdue	68.26			-0.42	0.49	-0.01	3.241	0.000	0.42
Nebraska	83.59			-12.67	0.32	-0.46	3.564	0.000	12.67
Iowa	82.48			-11.56	0.34	-0.42	3.901	0.000	11.56
Michigan State	77.38			-9.54	0.36	-0.35	4.266	0.000	9.54
Wisconsin	84.61			-13.69	0.31	-0.50	4.576	0.000	13.69
Northwestern	70.32			-2.48	0.47	-0.09	5.041	0.000	2.48
Illinois	73.09			-2.17	0.47	-0.08	5.511	0.000	2.17
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	NU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Northwestern	70.32
Boston College	76.89			-6.57	0.56	0.16	0.565	0.000	6.57
Eastern Illinois	45.82			27.58	0.94	1.58	1.507	0.000	-27.58
Army	61.22			9.1	0.79	0.81	2.299	0.000	-9.1
Illinois	73.09			-2.77	0.63	0.32	2.925	0.000	2.77
Michigan	73.19			0.21	0.67	0.44	3.596	0.000	-0.21
Iowa	82.48			-12.16	0.47	-0.07	4.069	0.000	12.16
Penn State	81.06			-7.66	0.55	0.12	4.616	0.000	7.66
Indiana	63.77			6.55	0.76	0.71	5.375	0.000	-6.55
Nebraska	83.59			-13.27	0.45	-0.11	5.830	0.000	13.27
Rice	59.08			14.32	0.85	1.03	6.678	0.000	-14.32
Minnesota	67.84			5.56	0.75	0.67	7.425	0.000	-5.56
Michigan State	77.38
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UI	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Illinois	73.09
Arkansas State	59.61			16.56	1.00	65.26	1.000	0.000	-16.56
South Dakota State	60.32			15.85	1.00	63.85	2.000	0.000	-15.85
Arizona State	78.79			-2.62	1.00	27.06	3.000	0.000	2.62
Western Michigan	63.41			12.76	1.00	57.69	4.000	0.000	-12.76
Northwestern	70.32			5.85	1.00	43.93	5.000	0.000	-5.85
Indiana	63.77			9.32	1.00	50.84	6.000	0.000	-9.32
Ohio State	85.55			-9.38	1.00	13.59	7.000	0.000	9.38
Purdue	68.26			4.83	1.00	41.90	8.000	0.000	-4.83
Penn State	81.06			-7.97	1.00	16.40	9.000	0.000	7.97
Michigan	73.19			2.98	1.00	38.21	10.000	0.000	-2.98
Wisconsin	84.61			-8.44	1.00	15.47	11.000	0.000	8.44
Minnesota	67.84			5.25	0.58	0.19	11.577	0.000	-5.25
Bowl Game	#N/A			#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.000	#N/A
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	IN	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Indiana	63.77
Ball State	57.87			5.9	0.86	1.06	0.855	0.000	-5.9
Virginia	70.4			-3.55	0.36	-0.36	1.216	0.000	3.55
South Carolina State	13.67			53.18	1.00	8.13	2.216	0.000	-53.18
North Texas	52.77			11	0.97	1.82	3.182	0.000	-11
Penn State	81.06			-14.21	0.03	-1.95	3.208	0.000	14.21
Illinois	73.09			-6.24	0.22	-0.76	3.432	0.000	6.24
Wisconsin	84.61			-20.84	0.00	-2.94	3.433	0.000	20.84
Iowa	82.48			-18.71	0.00	-2.62	3.438	0.000	18.71
Northwestern	70.32			-3.47	0.37	-0.34	3.803	0.000	3.47
Ohio State	85.55			-21.78	0.00	-3.08	3.804	0.000	21.78
Michigan State	77.38			-13.61	0.03	-1.86	3.836	0.000	13.61
Purdue	68.26
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	OSU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Ohio State	85.55
Akron	52.06			36.57	1.00	9.82	1.000	0.000	-36.57
Toledo	61.89			26.74	1.00	8.40	2.000	0.000	-26.74
Miami-Florida	79.53			6.02	1.00	5.42	3.000	0.000	-6.02
Colorado	69.54			19.09	1.00	7.30	4.000	0.000	-19.09
Michigan State	77.38			8.17	1.00	5.73	5.000	0.000	-8.17
Nebraska	83.59			1.96	1.00	4.84	6.000	0.000	-1.96
Illinois	73.09			12.46	1.00	6.35	7.000	0.000	-12.46
Wisconsin	84.61			4.02	1.00	5.13	8.000	0.000	-4.02
Indiana	63.77			24.86	1.00	8.13	9.000	0.000	-24.86
Purdue	68.26			17.29	1.00	7.04	10.000	0.000	-17.29
Penn State	81.06			7.57	1.00	5.64	11.000	0.000	-7.57
Michigan	73.19			12.36	0.67	0.45	11.675	0.000	-12.36
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	PSU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Penn State	81.06
Indiana State	41.73			42.41	0.95	1.65	0.951	0.000	-42.41
Alabama	92.53			-8.39	0.59	0.24	1.546	0.000	8.39
Temple	65.97			15.09	0.81	0.89	2.360	0.000	-15.09
Eastern Michigan	49.55			34.59	0.92	1.44	3.285	0.000	-34.59
Indiana	63.77			17.29	0.83	0.95	4.115	0.000	-17.29
Iowa	82.48			1.66	0.70	0.52	4.813	0.000	-1.66
Purdue	68.26			15.88	0.82	0.92	5.633	0.000	-15.88
Northwestern	70.32			10.74	0.78	0.77	6.413	0.000	-10.74
Illinois	73.09			7.97	0.76	0.70	7.170	0.000	-7.97
Nebraska	83.59			-2.53	0.66	0.40	7.826	0.000	2.53
Ohio State	85.55			-4.49	0.64	0.35	8.463	0.000	4.49
Wisconsin	84.61			-3.55	0.45	-0.13	8.912	0.000	3.55
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	PU	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Purdue	68.26
Middle Tennessee	61.48			9.86	1.00	40.31	1.000	0.000	-9.86
Rice	59.08			9.18	0.70	0.52	1.699	0.000	-9.18
SE Missouri State	44.62			26.72	0.84	1.01	2.542	0.000	-26.72
Notre Dame	78.82			-7.48	0.52	0.06	3.065	0.000	7.48
Minnesota	67.84			3.5	0.64	0.36	3.706	0.000	-3.5
Penn State	81.06			-12.8	0.46	-0.09	4.170	0.000	12.8
Illinois	73.09			-1.75	0.59	0.22	4.756	0.000	1.75
Michigan	73.19			-4.93	0.55	0.13	5.306	0.000	4.93
Wisconsin	84.61			-16.35	0.42	-0.19	5.731	0.000	16.35
Ohio State	85.55			-14.21	0.45	-0.13	6.179	0.000	14.21
Iowa	82.48			-11.14	0.48	-0.05	6.661	0.000	11.14
Indiana	63.77			4.49	0.57	0.17	7.227	0.000	-4.49
3.08	Sagarin 8/9/11	UW	Opp Score	Predicted Margin of Victory	Prob of winning	z-score	exp wins	Adj. Exp. Wins	delta of margin of victory
Wisconsin	84.61
UNLV	60.76			26.93	1.00	3.01	0.999	0.000	-26.93
Oregon State	81.23			6.46	0.95	1.60	1.944	0.000	-6.46
Northern Illinois	68.9			15.71	0.99	2.24	2.931	0.000	-15.71
South Dakota	48.79			38.9	1.00	3.84	3.931	0.000	-38.9
Nebraska	83.59			4.1	0.92	1.44	4.856	0.000	-4.1
Indiana	63.77			23.92	1.00	2.81	5.853	0.000	-23.92
Michigan State	77.38			7.23	0.95	1.65	6.804	0.000	-7.23
Ohio State	85.55			-0.94	0.86	1.09	7.666	0.000	0.94
Purdue	68.26			19.43	0.99	2.50	8.660	0.000	-19.43
Minnesota	67.84			16.77	0.99	2.31	9.649	0.000	-16.77
Illinois	73.09			11.52	0.97	1.95	10.624	0.000	-11.52
Penn State	81.06			6.63	0.60	0.24	11.220	0.000	-6.63

2010 Recap

Rush Offense

2010 Recap

Scoring Offense


Nebraska's offense, despite its problems in 2010, is not as bad as it appears at first blush, at least when viewed against the rest of the Big 10.  It also bears consideration that a large portion of Nebraska's offensive production occurred in the first half of the season.  Had TM not injured his ankle, Nebraska's offensive production would certainly have been further left on these charts.