Wednesday, November 2, 2011

I calculate each team's performance in a given stat category on a scale from
0 to 1. The best team in the nation is rated 1.0 and the worst team is rated
0.0. Everyone else fits in somewhere in between. My method allows a team
that is exceptionally good or exceptional awful performances to be reflected
in the scores and, IMO, is more accurate than simply rating a team 1 to 120.
A score of .50 means that the team produced exactly half of what the best
team in the NCAA does.

When I compare PSU's scores to the match up average of its opponents (PSU
Scoring offense to Opp's Average Scoring Defense), I get a good picture of
the relative quality of PSU and its opponents in the contenxt of the entire

PSU Scoring Defense vs Opp Scoring Offense

PSU - .870
Opps - .417
- PSU's scoring defense is very good, but the average performance of its
opponents scoring offense highlights that they have played, over the course
of the season, a group of teams that are really bad at scoring points. If we
take away Alabama from this, PSU's opponents average is .379.

PSU Rush Defense vs Opp Rush Offense

PSU - .689
Opps - .439
- PSU is good at rush defense, but far from great. They are barely in the
top 1/3 of the country. Their opponents are lousy at running the ball. Bama
and Eastern Mich score .536 and .526 and Temple is .612, but four of the
other five opponents score less than .400.

PSU Pass Defense vs Opp Pass Offense

PSU - .774
Opps - .364

-I'm going to come out and say it. PSU's pass offense score is meaningless
when you consider that its opponents are statistically some of the worst in
the nation. Bama was the best passing team they faced with a score of .443.
They haven't faced a single team that is even average at passing the ball.

PSU Turnover Margin vs Opp Turnover Margin

PSU - .540
Opps - .442

Finally, a statistic where PSU's rank isn't skewed by the overall lousy
performance of its opponents. PSU is average, none of its opponents are much
better than average though.

PSU Scoring Offense vs Opp Scoring Defense

PSU - .248
Opps - .659

I don't think it's a big coincidence that Bama and Temple are #1 and #2 in
Scoring Defense in the country and both have PSU on their schedule. Still,
when you take them off the board, PSU's opps average a very mortal
.557...better than average but far from the best group in the country.
Anyway you slice it, PSU is lousy at scoring points.

PSU Rush Offense vs Opp Rush Defense

PSU - .315
Opps - .543

PSU faced the best rush defense in the country (Bama) and one of the worst
(Indiana). Take Bama away, and the remaining teams average .478...note even
average. And they have still managed to field and anemic rush offense.

PSU Pass Offense vs Opps Pass Defense

PSU - .358
Opps - .607

Same song, different stat. Take Bama away, and PSU's opps average a
pedestrian .558 and PSU couldn't pass on them.

What's it all mean? PSU's defense has been over-inflated by teams that are
awful on offense and their offense is arguably worse than their opponents.
PSU is ripe for three consecutive blowout losses.