Ohio State Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

The final data point is the initial Sagarin score of 2011. After some pretty large changes in the early 2000s, OSU has been a model of consistency, with its Sagarin score varying less than five points from one year to the next. The initial 2011 Sagarin poll of 2011 has OSU #3 in the country with a score of 90.55, a decrease of 2.2 points from its score in the final 2010 poll. I think that, given the turmoil at OSU this season, that ranking may be a bit high, but OSU has, again, been consistent in its Sagarin score and rankings. I believe there is a high degree of probability that OSU’s initial Sagarin Score will be within 3 points of its initial score.

Wisconsin Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Wisconsin has exhibited a history of volatility in its rankings, with an apparent pattern of big drops followed by successive years of increases. The drops in ’99, ’00, and ’01 were followed by gains from ’02 to ’06. Two more years of drops were followed by gains in ’09 and ’10. Wisconsin’s initial ranking in 2011 of 82.76, #16 in the country, is probably about right, given the past trends. Wisconsin peaked in rankings in the late ‘90s, and has been unable to climb back above 90 points since then. I believe that there is a high probability that Wisconsin will finish within 5 points of its initial Sagarin Score of 82.76 and that its final Sagarin score of 2011 will not be above 90.

Nebraska Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Since posting National Championship level Sagarin Scores in the late ‘90s, Nebraska has been remarkably consistent in the final rankings, with dips only in the notably bad years of ’04 and ’07. Overall the trend has been level to upward since 2005. I believe there is a moderate probability that Nebraska will finish the 2011 season with a final Sagarin Score more than 3 points greater than its initial 2011 score of 82.61 (#17 nationally) I believe there is a very low probability that Nebraska will finish the 2011 season with a Sagarin score less than its initial score.

Iowa Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

The trend that Iowa has shown is long periods of improvement, followed by long periods of decline. I believe there is a low probability that Iowa’s final 2011Sagarin score will be within 3 points of its initial score of 84.48 (#18 nationally). Iowa will either improve or decline, but it doesn’t remain unchanged. I believe that Iowa will decline this year.

Penn State Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Penn State is the box of chocolates in the Big 10 – you never know what you’re going to get. The made significant gains in 2010 from 2009, though that only brought them back to 80 points, a number they had remained above since 2004. I believe there’s a high probability that Penn State will finish 2011 within 3 points of their initial score of 81.06 (#23 nationally). I believe that Penn State will gain slightly by the end of the year and finish above 80 points.

Michigan State Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

After one terrific year (1999), Michigan State has been up and down but almost always remaining the 70s. The initial 2011 ranking of 77.38 (#25 nationally) is only 1.9 points less than their 2010 final score, a year that they went 12-2 with a share of the Big 10 title. I believe there is a high degree of probability that Michigan State’s final 2011 Sagarin score will be at least 3 points less than their initial 2011 score.

Michigan Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Michigan’s rise from its nadir has been slow, but steady of the last two years. The decline that Michigan experienced in 2008 and the slow return to relevancy in 2009 and 2010 is analogous to what happened with Nebraska in 2007 to 2010. I believe that there is a high probability that Michigan’s final Sagarin score will be within 3 points of its initial 2011 score of 73.19 (#50 nationally). And in much the same way that I am predicting that Nebraska’s final score will be higher than its initial score this year, I believe that Michigan’s 2012 Sagarin score will be much more congruous with its traditional scores.

Illinois Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

About the only thing you can say about Illinois that is that they are consistently inconsistent. The only period of relative stability was when Illinois was consistently awful, from 2003-2006. I believe there is a high probability that Illinois’ initital score of 73.09 (#52 nationally) will be withing 3 points of its initial score and that 2012 will mark another year of decline.

Northwestern Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

It’s impossible to tell from this graph what to expect from Northwestern in 2011. Northwestern has a pattern of multi-year gains followed by a steep decline, so I believe that there a moderate probability that Northwestern’s final Sagarin score will be more than 3 points higher than its initial score of 70.32 (#60 nationally).

Purdue Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

The trend here is undeniable. Purdue’s football program has been going the wrong direction for years. They have a micro trend, though, of gaining slightly every other year, so their initial score of 68.26 (#71 nationally) is reasonable. I believe it’s probable that Purdues final Sagarin score will be withing 3 points of its initial 2011 score.

Much like Purdue, Minnesota’s overall trend has been downward, though the last few years have been marked by a period of relative stability, if not quality. Minnesota’s trend is a few years of little variance followed by a marked decline. I believe that Minnesota is due for another decline, and for that reason I believe there is a high probability that Minnesota’s final Sagarin score will be more than 3 points less than its initial score of 67.84 (#72 nationally).

Indiana Final Sagarin Score changes (year to year) 1999-2010

In the same way that Minnesota seems due for a decline, Indiana seems prepped for one as well. I believe that there’s a high probability that Indiana’s final Sagarin score will be more than 3 points less than its initial score of 63.77 (#80 nationally).

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