Tuesday, August 23, 2011

HuskerMath's Statistical Category Power Rankings

I've been working on this for some time, and it looks like I got it done just in time for the season.

This is an attempt to rank the 120 D1 teams based on their performance in different statistical categories.

The method I used was fairly straight-forward. Each team receives a score from 0-1 in each stat category. The score is calculated by (Value - Min / Max). Okay, maybe that's not particular straight forward, but here's an example:

In the category TD/game, the best team (Oregon) averaged 6.23 TD/game. In this category, Max=6.23. The worst was Memphis at 1.58 TD/game. In this category, Min=1.58. That means the span of values is 6.23-1.58, or 4.65. I subtract the category Min from each team's score to move the span to a start point of zero. This becomes each team's adjusted category value.

Then, to compute each team's points for that category I take the adjusted team value and divide it by the total span of that category. So, the computation for Oregon is (6.23-1.58)/4.65, or 4.65/4.65. This ensures that the #1 team in each category receives exactly 1 point. Memphis' computation is (1.58-1.58)/4.65, or 0/4.65. This sets the last place team in each category to 0 points. Each of the 118 other team's scores is calculated as a proportion of their values compared to the best in the category. While this looks much like a simple 1-120 ranking, it is slightly different, and allows for one team with an unusually high or low score to be rewarded or punished accordingly in a way that a simple 1-n ranking does not allow.

I perform those calculation on 73 categories and then sum the scores. The team with the highest total score is ranked #1 in my system.

Completely objective - it is based solely on the team's performance with no consideration given to strength of schedule

Does not consider W/L Record
Weights all statistical categories equally - scoring defense is the same weight as 3rd down conversions / game

Looking back at 2010, my top 25 is:

0TeamConferenceAdjusted Total Score
1TCUMountain West 50.79
2WisconsinBig Ten 50.33
3Boise StateWAC49.37
4Ohio StateBig Ten 49.04
5StanfordPac 1046.99
7Northern IllinoisMAC44.31
8OklahomaBig 12 43.67
9Virginia TechACC43.57
10IowaBig Ten 43.21
13UCF USA42.69
16Oklahoma StateBig 12 42.22
17OregonPac 1041.77
18Air ForceMountain West 41.65
19San Diego StateMountain West 41.57
20North Carolina StateACC41.56
23IllinoisBig Ten 40.74
24West VirginiaBig East 40.69
25MissouriBig 12 40.55

In care you're wondering, Nebraska ranked #47, with 38.26 points.

We were decidedly ordinary last year.

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