First of all, when I do the same correlation computations that I wrote about in my previous post on all NCAA teams I find that no average or single year has a correlation coefficient of greater than .36. This means that recruiting rankings alone are poorly correlated to season win percentage. So, I'm abandoning my hopes of an expanded season model.

One thing you can do, without interpreting or extrapolating the data, is compute the probability, given a 4-year Scout recruiting rank average, of a team finishing with a particular season W/L percentage.

For example, for the 2005-2012 seasons, there were 56 seasons in which the Scout.com 4-year average was between 1 and 10. 11 of 56 (19.6%) resulted in a season with a WL% of > 90%. This is reflected in the upper left corner of the probability matrix.

## Figure 1 |

To show the most relative probability of a given season
WL%, I color coded the rows with the most likely season WL% as darkest
green and the least likely WL% as the darkest red. One thing that jumps
out at me is that a team is most likely to have a fairly average
(between .41 and .70) WL% regardless of recruiting. This is shown by
the dominance of green in the center of the chart. The chart does show
that a very high recruiting average increases the likelihood of a very
successful season and the likelihood that a very low recruiting average
increases the likelihood of a low WL%

So, where did NU's recruiting averages end up?

NU's 4-year averages are shown in Figure 2:

## Figure 2 |

Those averages, plotted on the chart in Figure 1, look like this:

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