He maintains that NU is in a good position with our current recruiting.

I think that he's being a bit optimistic.

Using the recruiting ranks he posted and the W/L% for each year, I built a chart to determine the best correlation between recruiting rankings and W/L%. I used the current year ranking (what Brandon posted) and 2,3,4,5, and 6 year moving averages.

What I found was that best correlation between ranking and a year's W/L% is a 6-year moving average.

Current Year | 6 year average | 5 year average | 4 year average | 3 year average | 2 year average | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Season W/L% | -0.390 | -0.579 | -0.513 | -0.500 | -0.514 | -0.483 |

Using current year recruiting averages had the worst correlation, which is not surprising...what is surprising is that recruiting classes from 5 and 6 years prior to the current year could still have an effect on the season outcomes. Whether this is 'culture of winning' or something else merits further examination I think.

Now, knowing that a 6-year moving average is the strongest correlation to season W/L%, I can compute a regression equation based on the 6-year moving averages between 1992 and 2012 and the season W/L% for the same years. That equation {1.063 + (-.0161*6-year ave)} can be used to approximate future W/L%.

**Modeling**What is needed to build a model to do that, however, are parameters yearly recruiting. Under Coach Pelini, his five recruiting classes have averaged 25.3, with a standard deviation of 3.0704. Those two data points, and the regression equation I computed above can be used in a probabilistic model to estimate future W/L%.

The results aren't encouraging.

Based on 1000 iterations, the average recruiting class is (not shockingly)

**25.23**(as it should be based on the model). The average estimated W/L% is

**.58.**

The best recruiting class is estimated at

**21.51**, and the best season W/L% is

**.68.**

The worst estimated recruiting class is estimated at

**29.54,**and the worst season is estimated at

**.47.**

__If, going forward, Pelini can average a recruiting class of 20.0, the model predicts that the average W/L% is__

**WhatIf Scenarios**

**.72,**best is

**.84**, and worst is

**.61**.

If, going forward, Pelini can average a recruiting class of 15.0, the model predicts that the average W/L% is

**.86**, best is

**.97**, and worst is .

**67**.

Conversely, If Pelini averages a recruiting class of 20.0, the model predicts that the average W/L% is

**.46,**best is

**.56**, and worst is

**.35**.

__I disagree with Brandon that NU is well-positioned in recruiting. Even if my model understimates W/L% by 10% (roughly 1 game per year), that still means an average W/L% of about .70. I don't think that will be good enough for Husker fans. Pelini has to improve and sustain Nebraska's recruiting significantly if he is going to keep his job.__

**Conclusion**

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