## Friday, March 1, 2013

### Why all Turnovers Are Not Equal

Most everyone would agree that a turnover is a bad thing.  How bad is difficult to say however.

Elements that would affect that include the timing of the turnover, the location of the turnover, and the relative effectiveness of each team's offense and defense.

This post proposes a simple model for estimating the number of points lost by each team to turnovers from 2005-2011.

I began by calculating the total number of turnovers by location for each team.  Because most teams did not have turnovers at every point on the field, I aggregated the positions into 10-yard bins.

Second, I calculated the expected points of drives starting in the same 10-yard bins.  I did this for all each team's offense and for opponent's offense to estimate defensive effectiveness.

Third, I summed the expected point values for a team's offense in each bin to the corresponding opponent's offense bin (0-10 offense + 91-100 defense).  This number gives me the expected points that a team would have gotten if the turnover had they not turned the ball over and the expected points that the opponent's offense gets based on the field position.

Finally, because these are 'lost points', I show each value as a negative number.

This chart shows the 'lost points' for each team for each bin on the field.  For teams that had no turnovers recorded in a given bin I used the NCAA average for that particular bin.

Row Labels91-10081-9071-8061-7051-6041-5031-4021-3011-201-10
Air Force-6.29-5.26-4.08-5.91-7.70-5.12-7.50-8.27-5.12-8.70
Akron-6.29-5.73-6.06-4.84-6.19-5.71-5.36-5.51-5.78-5.20
Alabama-6.29-5.01-5.42-6.02-5.94-5.91-6.41-5.67-5.12-5.83
Arizona-6.29-6.02-6.24-5.82-6.15-6.84-4.63-7.24-6.37-5.70
Arizona State-5.15-6.01-6.87-5.82-5.77-6.99-4.63-6.58-4.49-6.95
Arkansas-6.29-5.01-7.76-5.00-5.74-4.86-5.45-5.56-4.12-6.20
Arkansas State-6.29-6.02-6.88-7.25-4.40-7.21-4.65-6.35-5.12-4.20
Army-6.29-6.02-5.97-3.96-5.60-2.87-5.50-4.55-5.23-5.40
Auburn-6.29-6.02-5.39-6.54-5.90-4.71-4.05-5.34-4.87-5.40
Ball State-3.15-6.02-6.43-6.57-6.40-6.07-5.00-5.49-5.62-4.80
Baylor-4.65-6.26-7.17-5.51-6.58-6.73-4.98-6.03-5.93-6.30
Boise State-6.29-6.02-7.61-3.91-3.40-7.37-4.63-6.95-5.23-5.40
Boston College-4.95-6.95-5.61-5.22-5.77-5.26-6.24-4.34-5.37-6.30
Bowling Green-6.29-6.02-4.11-5.82-5.80-3.25-5.25-6.70-5.23-4.95
Buffalo-6.90-6.02-4.98-4.60-5.71-5.50-5.75-4.33-4.74-4.20
BYU-6.29-6.02-3.87-5.75-4.90-5.87-5.75-5.70-5.62-8.70
California-6.15-5.01-5.27-5.82-5.90-5.75-3.75-4.78-4.12-5.40
Central Michigan-6.90-6.39-5.83-5.04-5.49-4.75-4.48-3.58-4.49-5.40
Cincinnati-4.65-6.02-6.35-7.11-5.75-5.45-6.35-5.02-5.24-7.95
Clemson-6.29-7.39-5.70-6.29-5.79-5.84-5.54-5.92-5.67-5.11
Connecticut-7.65-6.14-5.69-6.16-5.15-6.33-5.51-5.47-6.92-6.45
Duke-7.65-6.39-5.40-6.66-6.33-5.21-7.43-5.71-4.97-5.70
East Carolina-6.29-7.51-4.63-5.82-3.90-6.87-5.75-4.76-3.87-8.70
Eastern Michigan-6.29-6.69-5.97-5.16-4.62-4.15-5.51-5.83-5.23-3.70
Florida-4.15-6.02-6.67-4.91-5.80-6.37-3.65-5.66-3.62-5.40
Florida Atlantic-6.29-6.02-5.97-5.82-5.80-5.75-4.25-5.66-5.23-5.70
Florida International-6.29-6.02-5.97-6.13-5.80-5.75-5.51-3.83-5.23-5.40
Florida State-8.58-5.64-4.73-5.00-5.79-6.40-5.59-5.47-4.40-4.79
Fresno State-6.29-6.02-4.48-5.20-4.40-6.32-4.53-7.52-5.32-7.20
Georgia-6.29-6.02-4.59-7.00-4.40-6.87-5.51-5.38-5.23-4.70
Georgia Tech-6.29-6.02-5.61-5.92-5.83-5.17-5.59-4.67-4.78-4.03
Hawai'i-6.29-4.76-6.63-5.82-7.25-5.37-5.75-6.58-8.12-4.83
Houston-6.90-3.01-4.54-5.75-6.40-4.78-5.28-5.57-5.62-6.60
Idaho-6.29-7.14-6.73-4.91-4.65-6.62-4.25-5.83-4.12-5.40
Illinois-6.29-5.71-7.05-5.11-5.15-5.12-6.99-7.04-5.10-4.33
Indiana-6.29-3.76-7.06-5.16-5.34-6.62-5.66-4.26-5.15-3.45
Iowa-6.29-6.01-6.28-6.58-6.28-5.87-5.00-5.00-4.12-4.95
Iowa State-6.29-5.91-6.24-4.60-7.90-5.35-5.72-6.24-5.52-4.45
Kansas-6.29-6.51-6.29-6.66-6.18-6.25-5.41-5.83-5.68-6.13
Kansas State-7.27-6.96-5.86-5.46-5.90-5.82-4.53-6.08-5.62-5.40
Kent State-6.29-6.02-5.28-4.01-4.48-4.67-4.85-4.33-4.72-4.78
Kentucky-6.29-6.02-7.63-5.82-5.80-5.37-5.67-4.97-3.37-4.95
Louisiana Tech-6.29-6.02-7.03-3.98-3.65-4.37-7.25-5.66-5.23-5.40
Louisiana-Lafayette-9.15-3.76-5.97-5.82-7.70-6.17-4.50-7.08-5.12-5.55
Louisiana-Monroe-2.65-6.02-5.48-6.29-6.65-5.87-4.25-5.66-5.16-3.45
Louisville-6.29-6.02-7.67-5.70-6.44-5.12-5.51-5.03-3.82-4.20
LSU-6.29-6.02-5.73-7.58-6.03-4.62-5.51-8.08-3.12-5.40
Marshall-6.29-7.51-5.97-5.29-5.78-5.37-5.82-6.83-6.62-3.70
Maryland-5.40-5.67-5.87-6.07-6.55-5.35-4.78-5.73-6.50-4.63
Memphis-6.15-6.02-5.98-5.11-5.74-5.57-6.63-4.50-5.62-4.95
Miami (Florida)-5.02-5.56-4.95-6.26-6.08-7.33-5.71-5.11-4.72-3.83
Miami (Ohio)-6.29-6.01-5.75-5.82-5.90-4.87-6.25-5.94-5.47-5.40
Michigan-4.65-5.51-5.96-5.23-4.40-5.16-6.09-6.15-5.69-5.70
Michigan State-6.15-6.02-5.88-6.51-5.90-7.07-6.75-6.11-6.62-5.40
Middle Tennessee-6.29-6.02-6.73-4.20-5.80-4.00-4.75-4.33-5.23-8.70
Minnesota-3.15-5.14-7.00-5.61-4.80-7.54-5.00-6.16-5.37-5.70
Mississippi-6.29-6.02-5.97-7.66-5.80-4.37-5.51-5.51-4.62-5.40
Mississippi State-6.29-6.01-6.29-6.23-4.62-4.82-4.55-6.58-5.62-5.20
Missouri-6.29-7.26-5.28-5.86-5.50-5.57-4.93-5.87-5.62-6.60
Navy-6.29-8.51-6.07-7.37-3.65-5.57-5.51-5.54-4.12-5.95
New Mexico-7.65-4.51-5.80-5.61-4.40-6.92-5.75-5.99-5.23-4.95
New Mexico State-6.29-6.02-5.36-5.46-5.80-4.37-5.21-6.65-7.42-3.83
North Carolina-5.02-6.01-6.38-5.49-5.35-6.22-5.88-5.33-5.42-4.60
North Carolina State-8.77-5.56-5.89-6.29-5.35-5.50-4.60-5.39-5.08-4.75
North Texas-6.29-6.02-5.98-5.82-5.80-5.75-5.75-4.08-5.23-5.40
Northern Illinois-6.29-6.02-3.48-4.41-4.65-8.12-5.00-5.90-5.62-5.40
Northwestern-6.29-7.51-5.44-4.20-6.20-6.97-4.82-6.04-4.82-3.70
Notre Dame-6.29-3.51-5.97-5.82-3.40-6.25-5.15-5.68-5.17-5.40
Ohio-6.29-6.02-5.98-5.75-5.80-3.77-4.68-4.33-5.23-5.40
Ohio State-6.29-6.02-8.08-5.82-5.05-4.67-7.25-5.38-4.37-4.20
Oklahoma-6.90-6.02-6.15-5.05-6.12-4.55-3.84-4.99-4.20-6.28
Oklahoma State-7.65-6.02-6.92-5.08-5.40-6.28-4.91-6.77-6.60-6.45
Oregon-6.29-5.30-6.36-6.08-5.02-4.32-6.00-7.33-4.12-4.20
Oregon State-6.29-6.02-7.03-5.82-2.90-5.75-5.75-5.52-4.12-5.40
Penn State-6.29-5.11-5.66-5.81-5.22-5.69-5.87-4.90-4.87-5.20
Pittsburgh-5.40-6.51-5.97-5.91-5.80-5.00-3.35-5.62-4.62-4.20
Purdue-6.29-6.01-4.95-6.82-5.28-5.03-4.51-5.99-4.92-5.70
Rice-6.29-4.89-6.98-4.79-4.85-3.87-5.55-5.33-5.62-5.70
Rutgers-6.15-6.81-5.13-3.55-5.30-5.79-5.29-4.78-6.62-7.70
San Diego State-6.29-7.51-6.23-4.09-7.74-5.98-5.92-6.50-4.87-5.40
San Jose State-6.29-6.02-4.27-5.82-8.00-5.75-3.88-4.33-5.23-7.58
SMU-9.15-6.02-5.75-5.82-5.80-7.37-5.00-6.89-4.12-5.40
South Carolina-6.29-6.02-5.97-5.82-6.28-4.37-6.55-6.13-4.87-4.20
South Florida-6.29-6.02-6.14-6.01-5.40-7.21-5.60-5.28-6.62-4.20
Southern Mississippi-6.29-6.02-5.98-7.16-5.00-7.37-4.42-6.83-5.62-4.70
Stanford-6.29-6.02-7.48-5.82-5.80-4.37-5.75-4.83-5.23-5.40
Syracuse-6.29-6.02-5.68-7.11-4.10-6.53-5.25-3.73-5.62-5.40
TCU-6.90-5.47-6.75-6.51-4.55-6.04-4.10-5.35-5.90-5.33
Temple-6.29-6.02-8.23-5.82-7.03-6.77-4.63-5.08-4.62-6.45
Tennessee-6.29-6.61-6.28-7.06-7.03-5.50-6.50-6.58-5.24-5.40
Texas-6.29-6.85-5.30-7.36-6.35-4.97-5.81-5.02-6.12-6.13
Texas A&M-7.65-5.80-6.09-5.97-6.30-6.09-4.57-5.60-5.40-5.49
Texas Tech-4.65-7.26-6.03-6.45-5.74-6.17-5.27-6.10-5.74-6.38
Toledo-6.29-6.76-7.98-5.91-4.40-5.75-5.25-6.73-7.87-5.40
Troy-6.29-6.02-6.20-4.91-5.15-6.37-5.35-5.13-3.90-5.70
Tulane-5.15-7.01-7.18-3.77-5.80-5.37-4.75-6.20-4.87-8.20
Tulsa-6.29-6.02-6.36-6.34-5.73-6.21-5.34-6.08-5.23-5.40
UAB-7.65-6.31-6.56-5.61-5.03-6.17-5.70-6.15-6.22-5.48
UCF-6.29-6.02-6.28-7.16-6.03-5.37-4.85-8.08-5.12-4.20
UCLA-6.29-6.02-6.55-3.91-5.80-5.75-7.75-5.66-5.23-5.40
UNLV-6.29-6.02-5.97-5.82-5.80-5.87-7.25-4.33-5.12-5.40
USC-6.29-6.02-4.73-6.18-5.80-5.87-5.51-6.43-7.49-6.30
Utah-6.29-6.01-5.15-4.04-4.78-5.75-5.75-6.58-5.12-5.70
Utah State-6.29-6.02-5.97-5.82-5.80-5.12-4.25-7.88-5.23-5.40
UTEP-6.29-6.01-5.95-6.66-6.20-6.47-6.25-5.34-4.49-4.95
Vanderbilt-6.15-4.89-6.67-6.73-7.21-5.42-5.38-5.83-7.42-5.40
Virginia-6.29-6.44-5.45-5.04-6.34-5.08-5.08-4.91-4.74-4.26
Virginia Tech-8.58-5.64-5.93-6.36-6.32-5.59-5.63-5.49-3.92-5.40
Wake Forest-6.29-7.43-5.77-7.22-6.16-5.45-5.31-5.15-3.50-5.40
Washington-6.29-6.02-5.64-5.82-5.80-5.75-3.25-7.83-5.23-5.40
Washington State-6.29-4.51-5.97-5.82-4.19-4.67-4.75-5.66-4.33-4.20
West Virginia-6.15-6.01-6.23-4.81-6.50-4.89-6.31-5.84-6.37-5.20
Western Kentucky-6.29-6.02-7.98-5.82-5.80-5.87-5.51-5.66-5.23-5.40
Western Michigan-5.90-6.39-5.06-5.31-4.65-4.87-5.34-6.48-3.37-5.40
Wisconsin-6.29-3.60-6.06-5.41-6.84-6.41-5.68-6.32-3.87-5.40
Wyoming-6.29-4.51-5.97-5.68-4.55-6.62-4.85-5.45-5.23-5.40
Grand Total-6.29-6.02-5.97-5.82-5.80-5.75-5.51-5.66-5.23-5.40

The chart below is sorted by total points over the 7 seasons.  Total points are the 'lost points' times the number of turnovers in that bin.  Once I filter down to BCS conferences the teams at the top of the chart are, not surprisingly, generally the most successful teams over the same time period.

It's not surprise that teams that don't turn the ball over much tend to be more successful.  I realize that I'm not providing anything earth shattering.   But simple numbers don't always tell the whole story, and this is an attempt to capture a bit more of that story.

Data is courtesy of cfbstats.com

TeamConf0-1011-2021-3031-4041-5051-6061-7071-8081-9091-100Total
AlabamaSEC-76-35-33-36-59-89-103-62-5-23-521
FloridaSEC-50-72-60-49-64-102-62-96-22-5-582
Ohio StateB1G-82-36-65-58-66-93-123-65-22-13-622
WisconsinB1G-44-22-85-87-68-109-62-95-50-11-633
PittsburghBig East-38-46-90-71-104-105-57-67-600-638
LSUSEC-25-54-69-76-90-79-72-121-22-32-640
TCUB12-110-49-95-91-82-79-53-32-41-11-643
Virginia TechACC-52-45-36-95-114-73-101-93-31-11-651
StanfordPAC 10/12-38-60-112-52-64-79-109-68-47-22-651
Wake ForestACC-50-74-40-101-92-93-106-82-14-5-659
West VirginiaB12-68-54-37-67-91-83-95-82-70-16-663
VirginiaACC-25-45-76-50-82-97-81-128-52-34-671
LouisvilleBig East-19-42-115-51-116-102-77-116-19-17-674
AuburnSEC-31-66-54-98-83-104-81-101-44-16-678
Texas A&MB12-31-41-37-66-107-128-78-112-54-27-679
SyracuseBig East-38-48-68-107-53-131-100-75-56-16-692
Penn StateB1G-88-56-51-46-84-142-106-73-39-10-696
OklahomaB12-62-54-61-101-147-68-54-75-34-44-700
IowaB1G-50-30-94-79-100-100-90-110-29-20-702
CaliforniaPAC 10/12-43-45-63-105-130-69-68-81-74-32-710
KentuckySEC-57-36-107-52-81-86-113-104-44-30-711
MinnesotaB1G-13-62-70-95-82-136-100-111-38-6-711
OregonPAC 10/12-57-64-83-61-60-56-138-139-41-17-715
RutgersBig East-43-54-87-57-64-116-79-105-79-31-716
GeorgiaSEC-63-48-37-98-48-96-121-113-63-28-716
IndianaB1G-63-45-49-124-91-73-96-98-62-17-718
MarylandACC-38-57-59-79-92-128-110-103-45-9-720
ConnecticutBig East-61-43-91-74-82-120-94-82-41-32-721
ArkansasSEC-63-35-124-70-92-88-98-95-41-19-724
Kansas StateB12-58-35-41-60-136-111-104-91-56-38-730
MissouriB12-44-51-53-135-77-139-54-112-62-26-753
ClemsonACC-57-37-97-101-46-123-116-95-68-15-754
Georgia TechACC-94-78-50-101-111-114-67-98-38-8-760
USCPAC 10/12-38-96-90-74-81-117-127-64-67-6-762
WashingtonPAC 10/12-82-42-79-93-99-109-65-125-58-11-763
Michigan StateB1G-68-54-100-91-71-141-108-67-53-11-764
TennesseeSEC-69-73-50-64-141-60-85-158-42-27-768
Texas TechB12-56-73-48-71-75-80-158-134-52-26-772
BaylorB12-60-88-108-55-99-74-105-145-410-774
Arizona StatePAC 10/12-72-60-76-87-115-98-56-151-63-7-785
PurdueB1G-63-72-64-109-90-106-95-90-59-40-787
MichiganB1G-51-88-72-89-53-98-152-117-46-29-794
ArizonaPAC 10/12-31-54-87-70-98-137-83-166-57-11-797
Florida StateACC-34-96-38-75-93-128-89-159-57-29-798
CincinnatiBig East-37-90-38-128-115-87-95-85-100-24-800
North Carolina StateACC-35-72-100-82-102-93-97-140-61-28-811
North CarolinaACC-65-36-96-82-107-106-153-117-27-28-817
Mississippi StateSEC-57-72-69-106-106-111-96-151-39-10-818
MississippiSEC-57-36-60-69-116-122-138-127-74-22-820
Washington StatePAC 10/12-50-59-90-105-67-98-119-170-52-17-826
KansasB12-82-85-101-87-62-106-92-122-51-43-830
Boston CollegeACC-69-69-45-73-86-105-137-121-81-44-832
Oregon StatePAC 10/12-69-108-84-146-49-115-98-132-25-16-843
Oklahoma StateB12-76-42-111-96-140-126-93-122-33-26-866
NorthwesternB1G-82-98-92-59-124-126-111-115-58-7-871
TexasB12-82-110-42-81-95-124-174-85-61-18-873
DukeACC-76-70-54-87-89-99-186-126-65-23-874
Iowa StateB12-82-83-106-51-198-96-114-94-39-18-879
IllinoisB1G-50-29-99-82-108-87-217-127-56-30-884
South CarolinaSEC-31-84-72-122-195-35-144-166-49-8-906
Miami (Florida)ACC-35-89-49-144-170-132-143-113-47-8-930
South FloridaBig East-50-66-123-96-130-195-123-58-79-13-933
UCLAPAC 10/12-31-84-79-51-122-103-233-136-68-27-934